Maritime Injury Law BlogAlaska Salmon Forecast 2025
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has released its 2025 salmon run forecast for the Prince William Sound (PWS) and Copper River regions. The projections provide key insights into Chinook, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon returns, which will influence early-season management strategies.
Copper River Chinook Salmon
The 2025 forecast anticipates a total run of approximately 36,000 wild Chinook salmon in the Copper River, with a prediction range between 25,000 and 51,000 fish. This is 25% below the recent 10-year average of 48,000, classifying the run as “Weak.” Given the sustainable escapement goal (SEG) of 21,000 to 31,000 fish, ADF&G plans to enforce conservative management to support stock sustainability.
Copper River Sockeye Salmon
The outlook for Copper River sockeye salmon is promising with a projected total run of 2.638 million fish, including 2.558 million wild and 80,000 Gulkana Hatchery-origin sockeye. This represents a 50% increase over the recent 10-year average of 1.757 million, classifying the run as “Excellent.”
The anticipated total harvest across all fisheries is approximately 2.126 million sockeye, with the commercial sector accounting for 1.92 million fish. These figures ensure escapement goals and hatchery broodstock needs are met for future sustainability.
Coghill Lake Sockeye Salmon
The forecast for Coghill Lake sockeye salmon estimates a total run of 331,000 fish, with a prediction range between 224,000 and 439,000. This is 57% above the 10-year average of 211,000, earning an “Excellent” classification. After meeting an escapement target of 30,000 fish, the projected harvest is 301,000 sockeye across all fisheries.
Prince William Sound Pink and Chum Salmon
The 2025 forecast for PWS wild pink salmon projects a total run of 18.626 million fish, with an expected range between 8.5 million and 28.753 million. This is 8% above the recent 10 year average of 17.204 million, classifying the run as “Strong.” After accounting for an escapement goal of 1.838 million, the expected harvest is approximately 16.788 million pink salmon.
For PWS wild chum salmon, the 2025 forecast predicts a total run of 613,000 fish, with an estimated range between 285,000 and 941,000. This is 18% above the 10-year average of 520,000, also classified as “Strong.” With a 10-year average escapement of 170,000 fish, the projected harvest is 443,000.
A 3-year running average model was selected for this forecast, providing reliable predictions based on historical data. Total run calculations incorporated wild contributions to commercial harvests and stream escapement indices.
Management Implications
Salmon forecasts carry inherent uncertainty but guide early-season harvest strategies. In 2025, ADF&G will manage PWS and Copper River commercial salmon fisheries in-season, using real-time indicators such as sonar counts, weir passages, aerial escapement surveys, and fishery performance data to adjust management actions as needed.
With these proactive measures, the goal is for balanced sustainable harvest opportunities with conservation, ensuring the long-term health of these critical fisheries. The full report can be found at Alaska Salmon Forecast 2025.